The strongest test can disconfirm a preferred direction and trigger a real change of course.
All exercises
ChallengeExecuteMedium
Assumption Stress Test
Identify what must be true, what is known and what should be tested first.
35–60 min6–14
Purpose
Make a strategy or causal claim falsifiable and govern the next evidence cycle.
Output: Prioritised assumption register and test plan
Materials
- Chosen proposal
- Assumption register
- Evidence scale
Preparation
- Write the selected proposal and intended outcome.
- Bring existing evidence and identify claims stated as forecasts.
Facilitation steps
1
What must be true
10 minGenerate market, capability, behaviour and execution assumptions silently.
2
Rate evidence
10 minRecord current evidence strength and source for each assumption.
3
Find critical assumptions
10 minPrioritise by uncertainty and consequence if wrong.
4
Design tests
15 minDefine evidence, threshold, owner and decision for the top assumptions.
Observe
- Are aspirations written as evidence?
- Which assumption is protected by status?
- Can the test reverse the choice?
Debrief
- Which assumption is both uncertain and material?
- What evidence would change our choice?
- What will we stop if the threshold fails?
Transfer to work
Attach the register to the decision and review it before scaling or renewing resources.
Failure modes
- Tests can only confirm the preferred proposal.
- The register has no thresholds or decision consequences.
Accessibility
- Use a text table with explicit labels.
- Allow asynchronous evidence additions after the session.