Learning objective
Discuss the dominant system, emerging experiments and preferred future as competing patterns in the present.
Why it matters
A long-term vision and today's operating pressures are discussed as separate, incompatible conversations.
Core concept
Horizon 1 is the prevailing pattern, Horizon 3 the desired alternative, and Horizon 2 the transition space where experiments may reinforce either. These are qualities of change, not three calendar buckets.
Scenario
A regional college wants AI-assisted tutoring. Existing funding rewards lecture attendance, while pilots improve access for working adults but raise privacy concerns.
Worked decision
Map the current attendance model, a preferred accessible learning system and transition pilots; fund privacy controls and evaluate learning, not tool uptake alone.
Decision rule
Choose reversible steps and signals for periodic review.
Ethical boundary
Treating Horizon 3 as inevitable or labeling every shiny pilot transformative.
AI lens
Use AI to organize evidence, then verify its source and keep decision authority with people.
Quick check
What would invalidate the first proposed action? Treating Horizon 3 as inevitable or labeling every shiny pilot transformative.
Next step
Complete the Three Horizons case.