Run a Premortem for a Supplier Portal Launch
Elicit independent failure mechanisms, qualify them with evidence and create owned actions and thresholds without false probability precision.
24 minutes
Scenario
A manufacturer will launch an AI-assisted supplier portal in six weeks. The sponsor calls adoption inevitable; exception orders, identity matching and operational fallback remain weakly tested.
- Your role
- Programme risk lead converting dissent into launch decisions
- Method
- Premortem
Evidence pack
Supplier segment
Thirty percent of low-volume suppliers use identities not supported by the pilot.
Exceptions
Twenty-two percent of orders include a change or document exception.
Master data
Two systems disagree on the legal supplier name in 7% of active records.
Fallback
The manual fallback is documented but has not been load-tested.
Control
Payment-detail changes require independent verification outside the portal.
Decision gate
The steering group can change scope or delay launch at the readiness review.
Constraints
- Do not blame suppliers or employees.
- Do not invent probabilities from workshop votes.
- Preserve the independent payment control.
Case steps
Work through each prompt using the evidence pack. These guided cases support self-directed practice; server-scored attempts are not available yet.
Write a dated, material failed-future statement and an independent-generation protocol.
Create and clarify at least four distinct failure mechanisms from the evidence.
Qualify mechanisms by evidence, consequence, time to act and uncertainty.
Create three owned responses with evidence, due dates, triggers and residual-risk decisions.