A Warehouse Investment Across Four Futures
Build four coherent scenarios and define robust, optional and contingent responses.
24 minutes
Scenario
TransNova is considering a €45m automated warehouse with a 15-year life. The decision depends on labour availability and cross-border trade friction, both of which are highly uncertain.
- Your role
- Strategic planning lead
- Method
- Scenario Planning
Evidence pack
Labour
Warehouse vacancy rates range from 4% to 18% across regions; automation training capacity is limited.
Trade
Customs simplification is under negotiation, while two governments propose new inspection rules.
Technology
Automation cost fell 12% in three years, but integration lead time remains 18 months.
Customer
Three anchor customers require next-day cross-border delivery.
Asset
The proposed site can be expanded in modules but full automation is hard to reverse.
Constraints
- Scenarios cannot be best/base/worst revenue cases.
- The investment decision is due in six months.
- At least one signpost must have a numerical threshold.
Case steps
Work through each prompt using the evidence pack. Answers and rubric weights stay protected in the interactive flow.
Write the focal question and 10–15 year horizon.
Use labour availability and trade friction to define four distinct scenario logics with neutral names.
For each scenario, state one implication for the warehouse design or operating model.
Recommend one robust action, one option and one contingent move with a numerical signpost.