Learning objective
Distinguish a confident belief from a critical claim supported by evidence.
Why it matters
A polished proposal hides the claims on which it would fail.
Core concept
Extract testable claims, map each by importance and evidence, and test the high-importance, low-evidence corner first. Reposition claims as evidence arrives; the quadrants are a discussion aid, not a probability model.
Scenario
A museum plans an AI guide for visitors with limited vision. Staff assume voice output is the main barrier; visitor interviews have not yet tested navigation or consent concerns.
Worked decision
Rank the untested navigation and consent claims as critical, observe a small accessible walkthrough and revise the product brief before building.
Decision rule
Run the smallest ethical test and update the map with results.
Ethical boundary
Confusing confidence with evidence or calling a vague belief a testable hypothesis.
AI lens
Use AI to organize evidence, then verify its source and keep decision authority with people.
Quick check
What would invalidate the first proposed action? Confusing confidence with evidence or calling a vague belief a testable hypothesis.
Next step
Complete the Assumption Mapping case.