Learning objective
Use prospective hindsight and independent generation to surface failure mechanisms, then qualify them with evidence and convert them into owned decisions.
Why it matters
Once a team publicly supports a plan, ordinary review rewards confirmation. Assuming the failure has occurred gives participants temporary permission to explain it. Silent generation protects distinct information from anchoring.
Core concept: elicitation is only the first half
The session exercise produces candidate mechanisms. The full method tests evidence, prioritises consequence and time to act, and assigns changes, tests, protections or authorised acceptance.
Scenario
A portal team lists “suppliers resist change.” Interviews instead show that the smallest suppliers lack compatible identity credentials.
Worked decision
Replace the attitude label with a mechanism: credential requirements block a defined supplier segment, which returns to unmanaged email. Test the segment, design an authorised alternative and set a launch threshold.
Decision rule
A Premortem item is actionable only when it states a mechanism, evidence or uncertainty, consequence, response, owner and decision trigger.
AI lens
AI can cluster notes after independent generation. It must not simulate dissent, expose authorship or convert mention frequency into probability.
Quick check
Why write silently before discussion?
A. To avoid all collaboration.
B. To preserve independent knowledge before hierarchy and anchoring shape the list.
C. To estimate probability.
D. To assign blame privately.
Answer: B.
Next step
Run the Premortem exercise, transfer the outputs into the workspace and complete the supplier portal case.