Themes
Fiction Lab / Theme
Strategic signalling
Decision-making when evidence from another actor is also an instrument of influence.
Why it matters
More signals do not reduce uncertainty when the source chooses what the observer should see.
Recurring mechanisms
1
Cheap signals imitate commitment
2
Secrecy can remove process accountability
3
Irreversible action locks one intent model
Five system dimensions
authority
Secret content retains reviewed process
information
Facts and strategic signals are separated
resources
Credibility and options are managed resources
incentives
Actors benefit from misinterpretation
adaptation
Triggers move strategy between intent models
Discussion prompt
How should a system act when intentions are unobservable and every signal may be strategic?